Commercial Real Estate Report - San Francisco, CA [Apartment]

Property Type

The market-rate investment-grade San Francisco apartment market features low and falling vacancies and high and rapidly rising rents. The fourth quarter 2012 vacancy rate is just 3.2% according to Reis, approximately unchanged for the quarter but down 20 basis points in 2012. Rents haven't spiked the way they did in the late 1990s or in 2007, but they have now risen sharply two years in a row. In 2012, according to Reis, the average asking rent increased 5.0% , and the average effective rent rose 5.7%. The fourth quarter gain was 0.8% by both measures. (3/8/13)

Boundaries

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Recent Sales New Construction Highlight Submarkets

Latest Quarterly Reports (Q1 2013)

San Francisco, CA - Entire Metro
Submarkets
South Marin -30 bps
North San Mateo -20 bps
Civic Ctr/Downtown -20 bps
Central San Mateo -10 bps
South of Market -10 bps
Marina/Pacific Hts -10 bps
South San Mateo -10 bps
Russ Hill/Embrcdro 0 bps
North Marin 0 bps
West San Francisco 0 bps
Haight Ashbury 10 bps

Recent Sales

Cap Rate Trend

Sales Trend

Q1
2013
Q4
2012
Q3
2012
Q2
2012
Mean 5.3% 6.3% 6.1% 7.4%
Median 4.7% 5.4% 6.4% 6.8%
12 Month Rolling 6.3% 6.6% 6.4% 6.5%

Commercial Real Estate News

Recent Rent Observations

Location ID Class Rent
North Marin 60459 BC $1,033
South San Mateo A1471 BC $1,291
South San Mateo 31021 A $3,694
South San Mateo 29038 BC $1,450
South San Mateo A1482 BC $1,699
Russ Hill/Embrcdro 34366 A $2,748
Civic Ctr/Downtown 21837 A $2,447
Civic Ctr/Downtown A1775 BC $1,259
Civic Ctr/Downtown 10412 BC $1,834
South of Market 93515 A $3,126

Change From Previous Quarter

Market Rent Vac Inv
San Francisco 0.2% -10 bps 0.0%
West Region 0.2% -20 bps 0.0%
United States 0.2% -10 bps 0.0%

Metro vs. Region 0.0% 10 bps 0.0%
Metro vs. US 0.0% 0 bps 0.0%

Latest New Construction Updates

National Apartment Real Estate Trends

Vacancy Trends
Supply and Demand
Inventory Change
Inventory Change

Metropolitan Apartment Rankings (Q1 2013)

Based on 275 U.S. Markets
Value:
62. Los Angeles, CA 3.2%
63. Modesto, CA 3.2%
64. Omaha, NE 3.2%
65. Providence, RI 3.2%
66. Rochester, NY 3.2%
67. San Francisco, CA 3.2%
68. Sioux Falls, SD 3.2%
69. Suburban Virginia, VA 3.2%
70. Akron, OH 3.3%
71. Albany, NY 3.3%
72. Cleveland, OH 3.3%

Avg Annual Growth Rate (2013 - 2017)

Market Rent Vac Inv
San Francisco -1.6% 351 bps 0.6%
West Region 0.3% 419 bps 0.7%
United States 0.9% 485 bps 1.0%

Metro vs. Region -2.0% -68 bps -0.1%
Metro vs. US -2.5% -134 bps -0.4%